Nigeria’s Headline Inflation Increases By 13.71% YoY In September 2020

All Item Index

The consumer price index, (CPI) which measures inflation increased by 13.71 percent (year-on-year) in September 2020, representing 0.49 percent points higher than the rate recorded in August 2020 (13.22) percent.

According to the Nigerian Bureau of Statistics, NBS, the Increased were recorded in all COICOP divisions that yielded the Headline index.

It stated that on a month-on-month basis, the Headline index increased by 1.48 percent in September 2020 representing 0.14 percent rate higher than the rate recorded in August 2020 (1.34) percent.

As the percentage change in the average composite CPI for the twelve months period ending September 2020 over the average of the CPI for the previous twelve months period was 12.44 percent, showing 0.21 percent point from 12.23 percent recorded in August 2020.

NBS noted that the urban inflation rate increased by 14.31 percent (year-on-year) in September 2020 from 13.83 percent recorded in August 2020, while the rural inflation rate increased by 13.14 percent in September 2020 from 12.65 percent in August 2020.

On a month-on-month basis, it noted that the urban index rose by 1.56 percent in September 2020, up by 0.14 from the 1.42 percent recorded in August 2020, while the rural index also rose by 1.40 percent in September 2020, up by 0.13 from the rate recorded in August 2020 (1.27 percent).

However, it noted that the corresponding twelve-month year-on-year average percentage change for the urban index is 13.07 percent in September 2020,  higher than 12.85 percent reported in August 2020, while the corresponding rural inflation rate in September 2020 is 11.86 percent compared to 11.66 percent recorded in August 2020.

Food Index

The composite food index rose by 16.66 percent in September 2020 compared to 16.00 percent in August 2020.

This rise in the food index was caused by increases in the prices of Bread and Cereals, Potatoes, yam, and other tubers, Meat, Fish, Fruits, and Oils and fats.

On a month-on-month basis, the food sub-index increased by 1.88 percent in September 2020, up by 0.21 percent points from 1.67 percent recorded in August 2020.

The average annual rate of change of the Food sub-index for the twelve-month period ending September 2020 over the previous twelve-month average was 15.13   percent, 0.26  percent points from the average annual rate of change recorded in August 2020 (14.87 percent).

All Items Less Farm Produce

The “All items less farm produce” or Core inflation, which excludes the prices of volatile agricultural produce stood at 10.58 percent in September 2020, up by 0.06 percent when compared with 10.52 percent recorded in August 2020.

On a month-on-month basis, the core sub-index increased by 0.94 percent in September 2020. This was down by 0.11 percent when compared with 1.05 percent recorded in August 2020.

The highest increases were recorded in prices of Passenger transport by air, Medical services, Hospital services, Pharmaceutical products, Passenger transport by road, Motor cars,  Vehicle spare parts, maintenance and repair of personal transport equipment, Repair of furniture and Paramedical services

The average 12-month annual rate of change of the index was 9.77 percent for the twelve-month period ending September 2020; this is 0.13 percent points higher than 9.64 percent recorded in August 2020.

State Profiles

In analyzing price movements under this section, note that the CPI is weighted by consumption expenditure patterns which differ across states. Accordingly, the weight assigned to a particular food or non-food item may differ from state to state making interstate comparisons of consumption basket inadvisable and potentially misleading.

All Items Inflation

In September 2020, all items inflation on year on year basis was highest in Bauchi (17.85%), Zamfara (17.42%), and Kogi (16.66%), while Lagos (11.19%), Abuja (10.59%), and Kwara (10.53%) recorded the slowest rise in headline Year on Year inflation.

On month on month basis, however, in September 2020 all items inflation was highest in Bauchi (3.36%), Kogi (2.63%), and Zamfara (2.75%), while Nasarawa (0.66%), Abuja (0.64%), and Ondo (0.31%) recorded the slowest rise in headline month on month inflation.

Food Inflation

In September 2020, food inflation on a year on year basis was highest in Zamfara (20.94%), Kogi (19.06%), and Plateau/Yobe (18.90%), while Nasarawa (13.94%), Lagos  (13.87%), and ondo  (13.59%) recorded the slowest rise.

On month on month basis, however, September 2020 food inflation was highest in Zamfara (3.65%), Anambra (3.19%), and Kaduna (3.15%), while Nasarawa (0.51%) and Abuja (0.15%) recorded the slowest rise with Ondo recording price deflation or negative inflation (general decrease in the general price level of food or a negative food inflation rate).

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